Jenny provided permission to reprint her very excellent introduction to low-carbohydrate eating for people with diabetes. You can also view the original version on her Diabetes 101 website.

Jenny is a stickler for monitoring the effects of blood sugar. We might take some lessons from her experiences for improving management of people with metabolic syndrome or borderline blood sugars. In other words, monitoring the blood sugar-raising effects of various foods and food portions can provide great feedback on what foods are preferable, what undesirable, given your physiology.

Even if you are not a diabetic, Jenny's discussion is must reading to gain a better understanding of food choices, particularly carbohydrates. Along with seizing control of health, she has also gained deep wisdom in how to best manage this disease and its physiology.

Introduction to low-carb nutrition for diabetics

It's carbohydrates that raise blood sugar.

Sugars and starches, not the fats that dietitians have been warning you about for so long. If you've been testing your blood sugar after meals, you've probably noticed that already and you are starting to understand why a healthy diabetes diet will have to be one that limits carbohydrates to an amount that doesn't push your blood sugar up over the level where you are damaging your body.

But if your previous experience with restricting carbohydrates involved doing a weight loss diet like Atkins or Protein Power, which worked well for you until you crashed off it entirely and gained back all the weight you'd lost, you may be hesitant to embark on another course of dieting that requires some carb restriction.

I've been there myself. I've done the extremely low carb diet Dr. Richard Bernstein recommends for months on end. I did Protein Power for 3 years. And I've gone on the "Eat all the carbs you didn't eat over the past three years all at once" diet, too. The following observations grew out of my 8 years of experience with learning how to make carb restriction work long-term.

Unlike much of what you've read before, there are no scholarly references for this section. It's based entirely on my own observations and the experience of many dozens of people who have participated in online discussion groups devoted to low carb dieting and diabetes.

Weight Loss Diets Usually Fail but Diabetes Diets Can't Afford To Fail

People who adopt a low carb diet to lose weight tend to start out with great enthusiasm, adapt extreme dieting strategies, swear they will never eat another piece of bread or french fry for the rest of their lives, lose some weight, stall out, burn out, and slink back to their old diets, where they gain back all the weight they lost and more.

This is not a surprise. People on any diet, including low calorie and low fat, do the same thing. The body is very resistant to weight loss and deeply buried instincts in our brains do everything they can to maintain our weights, no matter how unhealthy they might be.

But while this pattern of dieting may be tolerable for those who are dieting to shed a few pounds before their class reunion, it spells disaster for those who must change their diet in order to prevent the high blood sugars that result in amputation, blindness, kidney failure and heart attack death.

Low carbing for diabetes means low carbing for life, long after the thrill has worn off of eating that runny brie and steak. Despite the hype in the diet books, it is not easy, simple, and fun. I know only a handful of people who have been able to sustain a low carb lifestyle for more than five years. And that is after years of online participation in low carb groups.

What you'll find below is what I've found works for me. I used a low carb diet to control my blood sugar for more than five years and have gone through the whole cycle, from enthusiasm, to boredom, to burnout, to saying "To hell with it, we've all got to die some time!" to starting all over again determined to avoid the mistakes that sent me round the bend the first time.

How Many Grams of Carbs to Eat? As Many as Allow You to Reach Your Blood Sugar Targets

When people think about adopting a lower carb diet, their first question is almost always, "How many grams of carbs can I eat at each meal?" Most of the diet books will answer that question with a hard and fast number. Atkins, for example, tells you to start out with 20 grams a day. Protein Power starts you at 30 grams. And Dr. Bernstein suggests 6 grams for breakfast and snacks and 12 grams at lunch and dinner.

Adopting these very low carbohydrate limits will control your blood sugar very nicely. But over time, many people find that sticking to a diet this low in carbohydrate becomes impossible. That's why I'm going to ask you to throw away all those diet books and try a new approach to restricting carbs.

What you will do is to try the strategy used by the people from the alt.support-diabetes newsgroup who informally call themselves "The 5% Club" because their A1c test results fall in the 5% range which doctors consider normal: use your blood sugar meter after each meal to determine how many grams of carbs you can eat and still meet a healthy blood sugar target.

You will start out by measuring your blood sugar one and two hours after each meal. Write down what you ate and observe what it did to your blood sugar. If a meal allows you to reach your blood sugar targets, try eating it again on a different day and test it test again, possibly at a later time, to make sure that your good numbers weren't just a result of slow digestion.

If you end up too high after a meal, the next time you eat it, cut back on the portion size of the carbohydrate elements in the meal and test again. Do this until you can hit your targets, or flag the carbohydrate-containing foods in that meal as ones your body can't handle.

What you're doing here is creating what newsgroup activist Alan S. calls, "a low spike diet" rather than a low carb diet. He can achieve normal post meal blood sugars by eating as many as 30 or 40 grams of carbohydrates at a meal. Others will find that they need to eat a lot less than that amount to hit safe post-meal blood sugar targets.

Usually how much carbohydrate you can manage has something to do with your body size. The more you weigh, the less each gram of carbohydrate you eat will raise your blood sugar. Those of us whose weight is less than 150 lbs often find that we can eat between 12 and 20 grams of carbohydrate and still reach normal blood sugar targets without the help of medications, and that we can add perhaps another 10 or 20 grams more, with medications. People who are much heavier can often eat 30 or 40 grams per meal and still reach their blood sugar targets. In general, men can eat more carbohydrates and still reach their targets than can women, again, because of their larger body size.

How to Learn How Much Carbohydrate is in Your Food

To make this system work, it helps if you start to learn how many grams of carbohydrate are in the foods you eat. That way you won't have to test hundreds of foods once you've learned how a representative sample affect you.

The best way to learn how many grams of carbohydrates are in the different foods you eat is to read food labels carefully, invest in a nutritional guide like one of Connie Netzer's books of nutritional information, download nutrition software like LifeForm (http://www.lifeform.com) or use online calculators like Fit Day (http://www.fitday.com). Software and online sites will compute the amount of carbohydrates and other nutrients in your meal for you as long as you know the portion size.

Learn about Portion Sizes!
This brings up an important point: When you estimate how many grams of carbohydrate there are in a portion of food, it is very important to find out if the amount of food on your plate corresponds to the amount in the "one serving" listed on a label, in a book, or in your software.

The best way to do this is to invest in an electronic food scale and to weigh your foods for a few weeks until you get the hang of estimating portion size. You can get a good food scale at a gourmet kitchen shop for $25 to $40 dollars. This food scale may be the best nutritional investment you'll ever make.

Once you start using your scale, you will find that the muffin you bought at the coffee shop weighs 8 ounces, which is fully four times the 2 ounces that most food databases give as "one serving" of a muffin. When you read that a mythical 2 ounce portion of muffin contains 27 grams of carbohydrate you will realize why that 8 ounce coffee shop muffin with its 108 grams of carbohydrates sends your blood sugar into the psycho zone!

With ice cream, when you weigh your ice cream on a food scale, you'll quickly see that the "one portion" listed on the package turns out to be only a few teaspoons' worth. That bowl you've been considering as one portion of ice cream weighs in as four servings or 72 grams of carbohydrate and 600 calories, which may explain its damaging effect on both your blood sugar and your waistline.

This may sound like a lot of work, and when you first start, it is. But after you do it for a few weeks you'll find you have memorized the carbohydrate gram counts and the portion sizes for the foods you usually eat, and once you have tested your blood after eating these portion sizes, you won't have to test every time you eat a favorite meal, because you will know what it is going to do to your blood sugar.

Eating Away from Home

The biggest challenge you'll encounter as you start learning what you can eat will be eating away from home. You aren't going to be able to weigh restaurant foods nor can you look up the nutritional values of many restaurant offerings--though many of the common fast food outlets do provide nutritional information online--though often without listing portion sizes.

That makes it a very good idea to avoid starchy or sugary restaurant foods or, if you do eat them, to eat only a small portion of what you are offered. Measure your blood sugar an hour or two hours after eating if you aren't sure about how a restaurant food will affect you.

Fat and Carbs Eaten Together will Digest Slowly

Foods with a lot of fat in them take longer to digest than those without a lot of fat. This is why pizza and ice cream often give deceptively good readings on your meter. If you test a meal and see a reading that is too good to be true, be sure you test at 3 or four hours after eating.

The Truth About Pasta

Pasta was long recommended to people with diabetes as a food that would not raise blood sugar and you will still see it starring in many cookbooks and magazines intended for people with diabetes.

However, if you test pasta 4 or 5 hours after eating, you may get an unpleasant surprise. This is true with the so-called "low carb" pastas, too. These foods give you excellent readings at one and two hours because they are resistant to digestion so they don't turn into glucose right away. But five hours later, they do break down into glucose and when they do, the 52 grams of carbohydrates found in each 2 ounce serving of pasta will hit your blood stream with a nasty wallop. (Not to mention

"I have never seen regression"

29. March 2007 William Davis (0)

At a presentation at the American College of Cardiology meetings in New Orleans yesterday (March 27, 2007), Dr. Arthur Agatston declared "I have been doing CT for many years, and I have never seen regression."

Whooooaaaa. Wait a minute here. I have great respect for the work Dr. Agatston has done over the years. He is, after the originator of the scoring algorithm that allows us to score CT heart scans (though a more accurate measure, the volumetric score, is the one we often use behind closed doors because of modestly increased accuracy and reproducibility). His diet program, the South Beach Diet, has achieved enormous success and is indeed an effective approach for both weight loss and correction of many weight-related causes of heart disease.

But he has never seen regression? Why would this be when we see it all the time? When we see heart scan scores drop 30%, it's hard to believe that with some savvy he has never seen regression (drop in score).

I can only attribute the difference to the more intensive endpoints we advocate (e.g., 60-60-60 for lipid values); the incorporation of adjuncts like fish oil, vitamin D, l-arginine; attention to non-cholesterol issues and intensified treatments for each. I doubt that the populations we see differ substantially.

As much as I admire Dr. Agatston's accomplishments, I believe that he is behind the times on this issue. No regression is so starkly different from the Track Your Plaque experience. I believe that relying only on statin drugs and diet will slow but will not stop plaque growth. It will also rarely, if ever, drop your score.

Attention to detail and a little insight into better preventive strategies really pays off. While not everyone in the Track Your Plaque experience will drop their score, a substantial number do. Many more slow plaque growth dramatically. And, as time goes on, our track record gets stronger and stronger.

COURAGE to do better

28. March 2007 William Davis (0)

The results of the long-awaited COURAGE Trial were announced today at the American College of Cardiology meetings in New Orleans.

In this trial, 2200 participants with stable coronary disease (i.e., not unstable, in which heart attack or death is imminent) were randomly assigned ("randomized") to either angioplassty/stent or "maximal medical therapy." Medical therapy means such things as aspirin, beta blocker drugs, and statin cholesterol drugs. There was virtually no difference between the groups in rate of heart attack and death from heart disease over a period of up to 7 years.

These results have caused a stir in the media and my colleagues, trying to sort out of the implications. However, I think there's one observation in particular worth making for those of us who tend to scoff at the conventional approach to coronary disease. That is, 1 of 5 people had a heart attack or died from heart disease in both groups. That's a lot. Even more ended up with a procedure (angioplasty, stent, or bypass). In other words, the "maximal medical therapy" instituted in participants was hardly a success. Though angioplasty and stenting failed to prove superiority, both really stunk. Both permitted a lot of catastrophes to occur.

"Maximal medical therapy," in other words, is a laughable concept. It doesn't include raising HDL, suppressing small LDL, reducing Lipoprotein(a), addressing inflammatory issues. It does not include omega-3 fatty acids from fish oil, nor does it address the severe degrees of vitamin D deficiency that are proving, in the Track Your Plaque experience, to be among the most potent causes of atherosclerotic plaque known. It includes a sad attempt at diet, as advocated by the American Heart Association, a diet that, in my view, causes heart disease and is distorted by the powerful political and financial influence of food manufacturers.

If the trial were to be done again, I'd like to see the "maximal medical therapy" arm be represented by a more effective program like the Track Your Plaque approach.

Value of a zero heart scan score

27. March 2007 William Davis (1)

Margaret is 73. She's a very good 73. She loves children and works full-time in a daycare. She manages her own household, goes to dinner at least once each week with one or more of her adult children. She is slender and has never been in the hospital--until she developed an abnormal heart rhythm called atrial fibrillation.

Most people who develop atrial fibrillation do so with no immediate identifiable cause. However, Margaret has been a widow since her husband died 15 years ago of a heart attack. She was therefore especially frightened of any heart issues in her own health. Her doctor also raised the question of whether atrial fibrillation might represent the first hint of future heart attack.

So we advised a CT heart scan. Score: zero, or no detectable plaque whatsoever. This put Margaret's risk for heart attack as close to zero as humanly possible. (Nobody is truly at zero risk for heart attack for a number of reasons. One reason is that people do irrational things like take cocaine or amphetamines, or they take too much decongestant medication, all of which can trigger heart attack.)

The heart scan settled it. Margaret has the sort of atrial fibrillation which likely simply develops as a result of "wear and tear" on the heart's electrical impulse conducting system and it has nothing to do with coronary heart disease or heart attack.

As that MasterCard commercial goes: Cost of a heart scan: About $200. Peace of mind: priceless.

You're at the cutting edge

26. March 2007 William Davis (3)

If you're a participant in the Track Your Plaque program for atherosclerotic plaque regression, you are at the cutting edge of health.

Few physicians give this issue any thought. Chances are, for instance, that if you were to bring up the subject of reversal of heart disease to your primary care physician, you'd get a dismissive "it's not possible," or " Yeah, it's possible but it's rare."

Ask a cardiologist and you might make a little more progress. He/she might tell you that Lipitor 80 mg per day or Crestor 40 mg per day might achieve a halt in plaque growth or a modest reduction of up to 5-6%. If they've tried this strategy, they would likely also tell you that hardly anybody can tolerate these doses for long due to muscle aches. I'd estimate that 1 of 10 of my colleagues would even be aware of these studies.

Both groups are, however, reasonably adept at diagnosing chest pain, an everyday occurrence in hospitals and offices. Chest pain, for them, is a whole lot more interesting. It holds the promise of acute catastrophe and all its excitement. It also holds the key to lots of hospital revenues. Did you know that 80% of all internal medicine physicians are now employees of hospitals? They're also commonly paid on an incentive basis. More revenues, more money.

Ask Drs. Dean Ornish or Caldwell Esselstyn about reversal of heart disease and they will tell you that a very low-fat diet (<10% of calories)can do it. That's true if you use a flawed test of coronary disease like heart catheterization (angiograms) or nuclear stress tests (Ornish calls them "SPECT"). It would be like judging the health of the plumbing in your house by the volume of water flowing out the spigot. It flows even when the pipes are loaded with rust.

In the Track Your Plaque experience, extreme low-fat diets (i.e., high wheat, corn, and rice diets) grotesquely exagerrate the small LDL particle size pattern, among the most potent triggers for coronary plaque growth. This approach also makes your abdomen get fatter and fatter and inches you closer to diabetes. Triglycerides go up, inflammation increases.

If you were able to measure the rust in the pipes, that would be a superior test. You can measure the "rust" in your "pipes," the atherosclerotic plaque in your coronary arteries, using two methods: CT heart scans or intracoronary ultrasound. Take your pick. I'd choose a heart scan. It's safe, accurate, inexpensive. I've performed many intracoronary ultrasounds for people in the midst of heart attacks or some other reason to go to the catheterization laboratory. But for well people, without symptoms, who are interested in identifying and tracking plaque? That's the place for heart scans.

In our program, 18-30% reductions in heart scan scores are common.

A stent--just in case

26. March 2007 William Davis (3)

Burt came to me last week. He'd received a stent a few months earlier. He'd been feeling fine except for some fatigue. A nuclear stress test proved equivocal, with the question of an abnormal area of blood flow in the bottom (inferior wall) of the heart.

"The doctor said I had a 50% blockage. Even though it wasn't really severe, he said I'd be better off with a stent, just in case."

Just in case what? What justification could there be for implanting a stent "just in case"? (The artery that was stented did not correspond to the area of questionable poor blood flow on the nuclear stress test.)

Just in case of heart attack? If that's the case, what about the several 20 and 30% blockages Burt showed in other arteries? The cardiologist was apparently trying to prevent the plaque "rupture" that results in heart attack by covering it with a stent. Why stent just one when there were at least 7 other plaques with potential for rupture?

That's the problem. And that's why stents do not prevent heart attack (unless the stent is implanted in the midst of heart attack, when the rupturing plaque declares itself.) Of course, when no plaque is in the midst of rupturing, as with Burt, there's no way to predict which plaque will do so in future. Since only one plaque was stented, there is a 7 out of 8 chance (87.5%) that the wrong plaque was chosen. And that's assuming that there aren't plaques not detected by catheterization angiogram; there commonly are. The odds that the right plaque was chosen would be even lower.

In other words, stenting one blockage that is slightly more "severely blocked" in the hopes of preventing heart attack is folly. If it's not resulting in symptoms and blood flow is not clearly reduced, a stent can not be used to prevent plaque rupture. A stent is not a device to be used prophylactically. It is especially silly when an approach like ours is followed, since plague progession is a stoppable process.

Note: This issue is distinct from the one in which symptoms and/or an abnormal stress test show clearly reduced blood flow and flow is restored by implantation of a stent. While some controversies exist here, as well, a stent implanted under these circumstances may indeed provide some benefit.

How will you know your score dropped?

25. March 2007 William Davis (0)

This issue came up twice this week.

Bill is a busy accountant. Two years ago, just after the tumult of the 2005 tax season was over, he got a CT heart scan. His score: 398. At age 53, this was a significant score. His internist did the usual: prescribed a statin (Zocor), told him to cut the fat in his diet, and be sure to exercise. (Yawn.)

Since then, Bill quit preparing tax returns and migrated to a less harried job in corporate accounting. It took two years since his heart scan for Bill to start thinking that perhaps his doctor's advice wasn't enough. If it was, he realized, everyone on a statin drug who made these minimal lifestyle changes would be cured of heart attack risk. Clearly not the case.

So Bill enrolled in the Track Your Plaque program. Our first step: Get another heart scan.

Bill was surprised. "Why another scan? I already had one!"

I explained to Bill that atherosclerotic plaque is like money: it grows in percentages, just like money in a bank account or in a mutual fund. If, for instance, you deposit $500 in a mutual fund and it yields 5% return, then after one year you will have $550. One year later, you will have 5% x $550, or $605. Another year: $665. In other words, growth is not 10% of the original amount you deposited. Growth is compounded, year over year. That's why money, when compounded, can grow so quickly.

Atherosclerotic plaque and your CT heart scan score do the same thing: they grow by a percentage of the current plaque quantity. In fact, we use the compound interest equation to calculate the annualized rate of plaque growth. But plaque grows at the extraordinary rate of 30% per year, on average. Imagine that was the rate of return on your money. You'd be the richest man or woman on earth.

Back to Bill. Now Bill, in his defense, was on a statin drug and did make modest efforts towards a (mis-guided) low-fat diet and walking four days per week. If, on a second CT heart scan, his score was:

398--No change. That's a success, since the expected rate of increase of 30% has been stopped. However, on his current program, this is highly unlikely. (I've seen it happen just once ever out of about 2000 people.)

250--Pop the cork on your champagne, because Bill needs to celebrate. He has substantially reversed his plaque. Highly unlikely on the current effort.

525 --The score is higher by 30%, so it has slowed, but it surely hasn't stopped. This is the most typical result on the sort of program Bill is following.

The message: Don't delay after your first heart scan score. It plaque grows like money with a huge return, there's no time like the present to take the steps to regain control.

Firefighters Face Added Risk of Fatal Heart Attack

22. March 2007 The Marshall Protocol and other fairy tales

31. March 2008 William Davis (144)

True to form, Dr. John Cannell has published yet another wonderfully insightful Vitamin D Newsletter.

One item caught my eye, a response to a question about the Marshall Protocol. I, like Dr. Cannell, was inundated with questions about this so-called protocol, which amounts to little more than the unfounded speculations of a non-physician, actually someone not even involved in health care.

In all honesty, I blew the whole issue off after I read Dr. Marshall's rants. They smack of pure quackery, though from somebody who clearly has a command of scientific lingo. To Dr. Cannell's credit, he took the time and effort to construct a rational response in the latest issue of the newsletter. I reproduce his response here:

Dear Dr. Cannell:

I understand Dr. Marshall conducted a study and found vitamin D is bad for you. What kind of study did he do?

Mary, Minneapolis, Minnesota

Dear Mary:

I have been inundated with letters asking about Professor Marshall's recent "discovery." Some have written that to say they have stopped their vitamin D and are going to avoid the sun in order to begin the "Marshall protocol." The immediate cause of this angst is two publications, a press article in Science Daily about Professor Marshall's "study" (which is no study but simply an opinion) in BioEssays. Dr. Trevor Marshall has two degrees, both in electrical engineering. Before I begin, I want to again remind you that I am a psychiatrist who works at a state mental hospital. In my duty to full disclosure, I must say that I have known a lot of psychiatrists in my life and a few electrical engineers. If I knew nothing else of a disagreement between two people but their professions, I would believe the electrical engineer, not the psychiatrist.

In reading his two articles, Dr. Marshall's main hypotheses are simple. (1) Vitamin D from sunlight is different than vitamin D from supplements. (2) Vitamin D is immunosuppressive and the low blood levels of vitamin D found in many chronic diseases are the result of the disease and not the cause. (3) Taking vitamin D will harm you, that is, vitamin D will make many diseases worse, not better. If you read his blog, you discover that the essence of the Marshall protocol is: "An angiotensin II receptor blocker medication, Benicar, is taken, and sunlight, bright lights and foods and supplements with vitamin D are diligently avoided. This enables the body's immune system, with the help of small doses of antibiotics, to destroy the intracellular bacteria. It can take approximately one to three years to destroy all the bacteria." That is, Dr. Marshall has his "patients" become very vitamin D deficient.

Again, Dr. Marshall conducted no experiment and published no study. He wrote an essay. He presented no evidence for his first hypothesis (sunlight's vitamin D is different than supplements). From all that we know, cholecalciferol is cholecalciferol, regardless if it is made in the skin or put in the mouth. His second hypothesis is certainly possible and that is why all scientists who do association studies warn readers that they don't know what is causing what. Certainly, when low levels of vitamin D are found in certain disease states, it is possible that the low levels are the result, and not the cause, of the disease. Take patients with severe dementia bedridden in a nursing home. At least some of their low 25(OH)D levels are likely the result of confinement and lack of outdoor activity. However, did dementia cause the low vitamin D levels or did low 25 (OH)D contribute to the dementia? One way to look at that question is to look at early dementia, before the patient is placed in a nursing home. On the first day an older patient walks into a neurology clinic, before being confined to a nursing home, what is the relationship between vitamin D levels and dementia? The answer is clear, the lower your 25(OH)D levels the worse your cognition.

Wilkins CH, Sheline YI, Roe CM, Birge SJ, Morris JC. Vitamin D deficiency is associated with low mood and worse cognitive performance in older adults. Am J Geriatr Psychiatry. 2006 Dec;14(12):1032-40.

Przybelski RJ, Binkley NC. Is vitamin D important for preserving cognition? A positive correlation of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration with cognitive function. Arch Biochem Biophys. 2007 Apr 15;460(2):202-5. Epub 2007 Jan 8.

These studies suggest that the low 25(OH)D levels are contributing to the dementia but do not prove it. Only a randomized controlled trial will definitively answer the question, a trial that has not been done. So you will have to decide if vitamin D is good for your brain or not. Dr. Marshall seems to be saying demented patients should lower their 25(OH)D levels. Keep in mind, an entire chapter in Feldman's textbook is devoted to the ill effects low vitamin D levels have on brain function.

Brachet P, et al. Vitamin D, a neuroactive hormone: from brain development to pathological disorders. In Feldman D., Pike JW, Glorieux FH, eds. Vitamin D. San Diego : Elsevier, 2005.

It is true that in some diseases, high doses of vitamin D may be harmful. For example, in the early part of last century, the AMA specifically excluded pulmonary TB from the list of TB infections that ultraviolet light helps. They did so because many of the early pioneers of solariums reported that acutely high doses of sunlight caused some patients with severe pulmonary TB to bleed to death. Thus, these pioneers developed very conservative sun exposure regimes for pulmonary TB patients in which small areas of the skin were progressively exposed to longer and longer periods of sunlight. Using this method, sunlight helped pulmonary TB, often to the point of a cure. Furthermore, it is well known that sunlight can cause high blood calcium in patients with sarcoidosis. In fact, sarcoidosis is one of several granulomatous diseases with vitamin D hypersensitivity where the body loses its ability to regulate activated vitamin D production, causing hypercalcemia.

Cronin CC, et al. Precipitation of hypercalcaemia in sarcoidosis by foreign sun holidays: report of four cases. Postgrad Med J. 1990 Apr;66(774):307-9.

Furthermore, although medical science is not yet convinced, some common autoimmune diseases may have an infectious etiology. I recently spoke at length with a rheumatologist who suffers from swollen and painful joints whenever he sunbathes or takes high doses of vitamin D. As long as he limits his vitamin D input his joints are better. To the extent vitamin D upregulates naturally occurring antibiotics of innate immunity, sunlight or vitamin D supplements may cause the battlefield (the joints) to become hot spots. I know of no evidence this is the case but it is certainly possible.

However, If Dr. Marshall's principal hypothesis is correct, that low vitamin D levels are the result of disease, then he is saying that cancer causes low vitamin D levels, not the other way around. The problem is that Professor Joanne Lappe directly disproved that theory in a randomized controlled trial when she found that baseline vitamin D levels were strong and independent predictors of who would get cancer in the future. The lower your levels, the higher the risk. Furthermore, increasing baseline levels from 31 to 38 ng/ml reduced incident cancers by more than 60% over a four year period. Therefore, advising patients to become vitamin D deficient, as the Marshall protocol clearly does, will cause some patients to die from cancer.

Lappe JM, Travers-Gustafson D, Davies KM, Recker RR, Heaney RP. Vitamin D and calcium supplementation reduces cancer risk: results of a randomized trial. Am J Clin Nutr. 2007 Jun;85(6):1586-91.

I will not write again about Dr. Marshall's theories. No one in the vitamin D field takes him seriously. Personally, I admire anyone willing to swim against the tide and raise alternative theories. I have done the same with influenza and autism. However, I agree with the New York Times, An Oldie Vies for Nutrient of the Decade and Jane Brody's conclusion, "In the end, you will have to decide for yourself how much of this vital nutrient to consume each and every day and how to obtain it." I agree. You will have to decide for yourself.

John Cannell, MD
The Vitamin D Council

Breaking news from the American College of Cardiology meetings

30. March 2008 William Davis (1)

The American Heart Association (AHA) was kind enough to send me an e-mail headlining the breaking news from the American College of Cardiology (ACC) meetings underway in Chicago:

ISAR-REACT 3
A Randomized, Double-Blind, Active-Controlled, Multi-Center Trial (ISAR-REACT 3) of Bivalirudin Versus Unfractionated Heparin in Troponin-Negative Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Interventions After Pre-Treatment With 600 mg of Clopidogrel

TRITON - TIMI 38 Stent Analysis
Prasugrel Compared to Clopidogrel in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndromes Undergoing PCI With Stenting: The TRITON - TIMI 38 Stent Analysis

Percutaneous Coronary Interventions in Facilities without On-Site Cardiac Surgery (NCDR)

(And four other similar reports)

Let's meld the ACC headlines with the financial headlines:

July 2, 2007
The Medicines Company announces reacquisition of all marketing rights to bivalirudin, anticoagulant growing in use for coronary angioplasty and related procedures. 2008 sales anticipated to be in the $15-20 million range, to grow to $90-110 million, a growth rate of 50% per year.

November 20, 2007
Drug manufacturing giant, Eli Lilly, vies for a portion of the $5 billion (annual revenues) oral anti-platelet market, now occupied by Plavix, with its newer, but questionably better, agent, prasugrel.

Growth of the coronary angioplasty (percutaneous coronary intervention, or PCI) doesn't ordinarily make headlines, but the performance of specific companies within the industry does. Angioplasty and cardiac device maker (inc. the drug-coated stent, Taxus), Boston Scientific, for instance, announced record sales of $8.537 billion for 2007, an increase of $536 million. How to grow this market? We could always hope for more people with heart attacks or other unstable symptoms. Or, we could . . . increase the number of hospitals capable of PCI! Brilliant.

The money behind this push for procedures is staggering. It drives enormous marketing efforts, pays Washington lobbyists, pays for many nice dinners and trips for doctors who engage in the system, and pays for very costly research.

And the AHA and ACC are kind enough to let us know about these great pieces of news.

Why health care costs are ballooning

28. March 2008 William Davis (7)

Have you ever wondered to what degree health care is driven by a profit motive?

A doctor advises you to undergo a procedure. Is that advice motivated solely by concern for your health and welfare? Or, does the generous financial compensation peculiar to procedures bias your doctor’s decision?

The billboard on the highway advertises a hospital heart program. Is it meant to raise awareness of lifesaving services? Or, is it the same as an ad for a casino or hotel chain, a marketing tool for generating business?

At one time or another, we’ve probably all shared a suspicion that healthcare is occasionally motivated by money: over-priced prescription drugs, hospitals charging higher prices to the uninsured, the three-minute doctor’s visit for $200.

Direct-to-consumer drug advertising has brought aggressive drug sales tactics front and center to the public’s attention. “Ask your doctor about . . .” is the mantra of countless 30-second spots appearing several times an hour on national television. Direct-to-consumer drug advertising has provided the American public with a $4.5 billion reminder that there’s money to be made in the world of prescription drugs (U.S. Government Accountability Office). And there’s certainly a load of money to be made. A 2003 Harvard and Massachusetts Institute of Technology study showed that, of every dollar spent on consumer drug advertising, $4.20 was recovered through increased sales (Impact of Direct-to-Consumer Advertising on Prescription Drug Spending; Henry J Kaiser Family Foundation). A $53,000 ad run three times during the Oprah Winfrey Show is money well invested for a drug manufacturer.

The knotty issue of medical errors has recently captured attention. Unintentional medical errors—-nurses administering the wrong medication, doctor misdiagnoses or amputating the wrong leg, unrecognized medication interactions—-are an estimated $29 billion headache. Former Secretary of Health and Human Services, Tommy Thompson, reported that up to 98,000 lives are lost every year as a result of errors in healthcare delivery.

No doubt, these are all enormous problems that plague our healthcare system.

But I am going to make the case for a much larger problem. The magnitude of this problem dwarfs that of medical errors. It’s not an issue of neglect, nor is it committed in error. It is built on intentionally committed acts, systematically conducted on a massive scale, and sustained by the participation of many. It is a plague of unprecedented proportions on the health care system. It requires the willing participation of parties at multiple levels, from lone medical practitioners, to hospitals, to multi-billion dollar medical device and drug manufacturers, even to institutions like the FDA and American Heart Association.

The problem is the bizarre situation that has evolved in health care for the heart. I specify health care for the heart, not heart disease, because actual disease is not always part of the equation. Astonishingly, much of the inflated cost of heart care is based on the feared specter of heart disease, the implied threat of heart disease, the possibility, sometimes vanishingly remote, of heart disease based on some harbinger of risk. Sometimes the disease itself is nowhere in sight.

The system thrives on a culture of fear, an open ticket to over-testing and profligate spending. Ads cleverly admonish you to “Do it for your family”. Nuclear stress testing alone generates $18 billion of costs. Yet this test is normal in 80% of people tested. Worse, the 20% of “abnormal” stress test results are not always indicative of genuine disease, they are “false positive,” and are a big part of the reason that 30% of heart catheterizations fail to show disease. “My arteries checked out okay!” relieved patients will declare?-but there may have been no reason to have pursued a costly test like catheterization in the first place. But the system makes far better sense when you understand that nuclear stress tests and heart catheterizations are the bread and butter of cardiologists and hospitals, and the ticket to more financially rewarding procedures.

This approach evolved in the 1960s, when coronary heart disease itself was impossibly difficult to diagnose until a catastrophe like heart attack declared itself. But in the 21st century, coronary heart disease is easily, inexpensively, and safely detectable, decades before heart attack risk looms over your life. Yet murky, risk-based tests like stress tests and cholesterol testing continue to dominate the practice of “heart disease detection” in real-life practice.

Make no mistake: This problem is huge. The cardiovascular health care system has mushroomed into a gargantuan profit-generating mechanism, far larger than is required to deliver essential heart care. In 2003, over $431.8 billion was spent in the U.S. on cardiovascular health care, $151.6 of this on coronary disease alone (American Heart Association, Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics—2007 Update). The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services projects that total health care spending will double to $3.6 trillion by 2014, consuming 18.7 percent of the nation's economy, much of the increase due to expanding cardiovascular costs.

Most tragically, the system has grown through the exploitation of trust. The faith we have in doctors, hospitals, and the institutions and people associated with healthcare has been subverted into the service of profit. Many practitioners and institutions have chosen to operate under the guise of doing good but instead capitalize on the public’s willingness to accept as fact the need for a major heart procedure and all its associated costly trappings.

Copyright 2008 William Davis, MD

Heart scans know no race

27. March 2008 William Davis (0)

The New England Journal of Medicine just published a new analysis of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) database authored by Dr. Robert Detrano of University of California-Irvine.

As we would expect, the study confirmed the ability of heart scans and coronary calcium scoring to predict heart attack. This study is unique, hovever, in including Hispanics, Chinese Americans, and African Americans in its 6722 participants.

The analysis confirmed that coronary calcium scores yielded similar information, regardless of race. It confirmed that people with a zero heart scan score had a nearly zero risk of cardiovascular events; it also confirmed that higher scores (e.g., >300) yielded much greater risk over the 4 years of observation: 7.73-fold greater risk for people with scores 101-300; 9.67-fold greater for scores >300.

One of the media reports on the study can be viewed on HeartWire

Bill Sardi's Knowledge of Health website and blog also has an insightful commentary.

To those of us who have used heart scans in thousands of people, the MESA results come as no surprise, having seen these phenomena played out every day in real life. Although similar results have been previously shown in a number of other smaller studies, Detrano's analysis of MESA does serve to further validate these concepts. It also serves to deliver the message more broadly into the mainstream media message.

No surprise whatsoever: Coronary calcium scores obtained through heart scans represent a measure of the disease--coronary atherosclerosis--itself. It is not a risk factor that may or may not be associated with development of coronary atherosclerosis. Thus, when heart scan scores are held up in comparison the cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, c-reactive protein, or any other risk measure, heart scan scores outshine all these measures by enormous margins as predictors of your future.

Want to know what your uncorrected heart disease future could be? Consult your heart scan score. Not your cholesterol panel.

Copyright 2008 William Davis, MD

Heart Scan Frustration

27. March 2008 William Davis (4)

Ideally, you get a heart scan and your doctor sits down with you and provides a rational, insightful discussion on what the results mean.

Is heart attack in your future? If so, when? Are blockages present? What is the role of other tests like stress tests and heart catheterizations? Do CT coronary angiograms add any important information? What is the role of cholesterol? Can diet or nutritional supplements impact on heart scan score?

But what happens if you are unable to get the answers you desire? What if you get brusque responses, or your doctor just doesn't know? Or what if there is a clear conflict of interest or the possibility of financially-tainted advice? ("You need a heart catheterization right away or you'll die of a heart attack!")

One example of this process was posted by a frustrated Member of Track Your Plaque who found that answers were virtually unobtainable from his/her doctors:

I underwent a heart scan a few weeks ago, based on a recommendation from a doctor. I assumed that, since I was paying for it, and I requested it, the results would be fully explained to me.

Late on a Friday afternoon, the radiologist who intrepreted it called me and said I would be receiving a report, and so would the doctor. I asked that she explain them to me. She said their policy was to give the report to the doctor and let him explain them. She did say I was in the 90th percentile for my age--and that 10% had a worse score. I asked where do we go from here, and she said, if you're not having symptoms, maybe lifestyle changes, but YOUR DOCTOR will let you know. I asked for a copy of the films and reports, and was told YOUR DOCTOR can request them. I called back a little later and she was gone. It was starting to sink in that I must have a terrible score. In the meantime, I did what I should have done before I went for the scan---looked up information on the internet, and read about calcium scoring. This website [Track Your Plaque] hadn't showed up in my Google search, so a lot of the information was useless.

I did manage to get the score of 186, with the breakdown per artery from someone at the clinic, but only after I insisted I paid for the test, I have a right to the information. 'Course having a score per artery didn't really help---what did it mean? ie: if a 72, how did that correlate to any blockages? Was it a big lump...or spread along the wall throughout the artery.

I had an appt. the following Tuesday with THE DOCTOR---a very busy doctor. After an hour and 1/2 wait in a crowded waiting room, I got to see him. We discussed briefly another issue, and he started walking out. I followed him out and said I wanted my full l5 minutes of time allotted in their scheduling, which seemed to irritate him.

I followed him into his office and said, WHAT ABOUT THE HEART SCAN? What do the numbers mean? He responded that he didn't know, he'd have to see the films, but don't worry--you're probably ok, and I should get a thallium stress test anyway. He said he couldn't intrepret the numbers, or give an opinion on where the plaque was or how it was configured.

I then went to the interventional cardiologist that afternoon and the thallium stress test was scheduled. I asked about the HEART SCAN, and again, no acknowledgment. I asked if he would get the films and explain the results, and again no acknowledment as he was walking out the door.

After this lengthy saga.....MY QUESTION IS....since this is a test you can order yourself (literature at center made mention of the tests you can get without a doctors request)......WHO IS THEIR FIDUCIARY RESPONSIBILITY TO WHEN IT COMES TO EXPLAINING THE RESULTS?

I learned more on this website [Track Your Plaque], and the emailed book then I did dealing with two doctors and the center itself. Thinking back, there was nothing but a brochure on the test at the center. No "Track your Plaque" stuff.

Day 2
I called the scanning center and relayed my dilemma. I was put in touch with another radiologist--a very informative one, who appeared passionate about heart scans as a preventive test. He compared them to mammograms. He hadn't heard about the "Track Your Plaque" program but was going to check it out. He said people varied in their responses to the test results, as well as doctors/cardiologists as to the next step. (ie: lifestyle changes..the next test, etc). He seemed to feel blockages of more than 50% for many cardiologists would indicated angioplasty and stenting.

I'm going back to review the films with him later this week. He wasn't that concerned with the 101 reading on the right artery. The 72 on the left he had concerns with and indicated the CAT test [CT angiography] would offer more as far as how much was there, and approx. blockage, and could be a baseline to compare to in the future. He said some cardiologists would go right to angioplasty...some to a CAT which is more conservative...some might watch and encourage lifestyle changes. He said the Heart Scan doesn't show soft plaque. He also said the internist who referred me was one of only a few in the city that felt strongly about the heart scan---and probably used it to take further action via a referral, and just didn't have time to discuss it, with the way medicine is run these days.

This Member's frustrated post pretty much sums it up:

1) Doctors don't seem to have the time nor motivation to be bothered about offering advice that leads to prevention of disease.

2) The tendency is to always ask, "Are heart procedures necessary?", not "How did this happen?" or "What can we do about this to keep it from getting worse?" How about diet, supplements, and other tools to use at home?

The obvious uneasiness of the radiologist, the last physician this Member spoke with, can just as easily lead to boneheaded advice: Maybe getting a stent isn't such a bad idea. Maybe a CT angiogram is an absolute necessity.

I hear comments like this every day. It is the reason why I continue to plug away at this program and try to set things straight.

By the way, subscribers to our Track Your Plaque Newsletter just heard about our latest success story, Roy, who dropped his heart scan score over 500 points. If you are yet not a newsletter subscriber, click here.

Copyright 2008 William Davis, MD

Dr. Nieca Goldberg and heart healthy

23. March 2008

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